My criteria for whether or not a given locale will weather the deindustrial future can be broken down into three broad categories: physical, communal, and sociopolitical. Since predicting the future to a fine degree of accuracy has eluded our grasp over the entire history of humanity, I've resisted the temptation to reduce these criteria to really granular requirements. Rather, each category is again broadly broken down into what I consider the "non-negotiables." Anything that doesn't fall into this purview can, and will have to be, dealt with as it comes. I'm hoping this leaves me flexible and adaptable.
I want to tackle the physical requirements first because one of its criteria is more important than anything else. Can you guess what it is? Here's the list:
- easy, consistent access to potable water
- relatively mild climate without extremes in either direction
- low sensitivity to climate change
The first criteria should be self-explanatory. For the most part, citizens of developed countries, especially Canada, take access to drinking water for granted. There is massive infrastructure investment and maintenance that goes on to provide safe, drinkable water to the majority of the population. Remember the majority of people live in cities now, and how many wells do you know are dug within city limits?
Here's an example of the fragility of modern water supply. The City of Winnipeg gets all of its drinking water from Shoal Lake, brought to the city via a concrete aqueduct 156 kilometers long! Gravity feeds four reservoirs at the edge of the city, and electric pumps deliver the water to their substations and then on to each person's home. Despite being situated where the Assiniboine and Red Rivers meet, these local sources of water have become so polluted that they cannot be safely consumed. In fact, deaths from Red River fever were common right up until 1904 because of high fecal bacteria presence in the Assiniboine River. Yikes! The implications here, of course, are that high population centers, for the most part, will be hard pressed to meet my primary criteria in the future.
The next two physical requirements are somewhat related. I live in Canada, and to call any of its weather mild is stretching it. However, temperate climates will probably fare best since they have some room to adjust to climate change before they become inhospitable. Coastal regions are mild and wet, but if climate change inundates them with sea water, well, let's just say the mass exodus to higher, drier ground will make the evacuations of British civilians during World War 2 seem like a small family outing.
Some may think that a mild climate really should be negotiable. I mean, how bad can a winter be that reaches temperatures of -20 degrees Celsius on a regular, and ongoing, basis? All I have to say is this: let's see just how comfortable one of those suburban McMansions will be in the middle of a typical prairie winter when the cost of heating is prohibitively high. I also hope that anyone that chooses to stay here really likes salted meats, preserved food, root vegetables and grains, because that's all they'll be eating for nearly six months of the year. I rest my case.
The next main category to address is community. It's a nebulous, hard-to-define, feeling one gets about a group of people who live in close proximity to one another. There are as many types of community as there are types of people in this world. Keeping that in mind, there are some overarching "personality" traits that I'm looking for in a prospective community. They are:
- low population density
- self-sufficiency
- people who "get it"
Low population density ensures pollution will be kept to a minimum, and the impacts of the community on the environment will be lessened. A major predicament that our modern society faces is overshooting the carrying capacity of its environment. There is only so much pollution that an ecosystem can absorb before it begins to accumulate and damages said ecosystem. This ties in with the other two traits because I hope to find a community where the people are environmentally conscious, and are able to provide for themselves without relying on vast chains of supply. Gathering resources locally is inherently less of a burden on the environment.
Practical considerations aside, I want to be part of a community that comes together to help one another. I want people who think outside the box store, and form a genuine network of friends and family who understand that we must live in harmony with our environment if we want any realistic hope of thriving long into the future. Industrial society has run its course and it's proven to be unsustainable. There are people out there who understand this, and are willing to help others to move away from the norm.
The last category may fall more along the lines of "required to live in relative peace and safety." While not absolutely mandatory to living, it will certainly make the transition to a low-energy lifestyle that much easier to bear. The sad reality of a world in decline is that people will fight and bleed over their shrinking slice of the pie. Very few people will ever willingly surrender the creature comforts of modern society; rather, they will focus more and more of their energy on keeping the things they have at the cost of others. This will lead to conflict as resources become scarce. This is why I have sociopolitical requirements for where I want to live. There are two that I've identified, and I hope they'll be guide enough to avoid the majority of strife:
- historically "quiet" region
- no coveted resources i.e. fossil fuels and minerals
These two I picked up from The Archdruid Report, where John Michael Greer's historian background helps him predict with eerie accuracy the events that we've seen played out over the past five years or so. Choosing to live in a place with little strategic and economic value, in the sense that a modern society would find value in it, seems profoundly wise to me. The best recipe to being left alone is to have nothing that "sane" people would want, i.e. energy, minerals, scalable sources of food and water, etc. Just think of how many times a homeless person was accosted by an employed, middle class worker for the change he beggared or for the clothes on his back. It's an enlightening example of the power of not having what other people covet. The added bonus to this because my friends will most likely like me for me, and not for what I own.
My original intent was to apply these criteria to some of the places I've been, and determine whether those places would be a good choice. These include Winnipeg, the Okanagan, Vancouver Island, the Canadian west coast, and some of the United States. I'm not going to do that just yet because of some new information that's come my way. Permaculture may provide options and answers where currently I only see problems and questions. I feel I need to process and internalize that information via wwoofing and befriending permaculture practitioners before I can make truly educated decisions on good places to live in a deindustrial future.
Just as an example, I found out that there's people living in the deep interior of British Columbia, in the mountains, living quite well off the land. This is possible due to the techniques and knowledge of permaculture. I didn't think such a thing was possible, and it's that eye-opening experience that's made me realize that there's a lot more to picking a place than I thought. I need to know more about what's possible with permaculture and what I'm capable of when given the right knowledge and tools. This new discovery is helping to shape the rest of 2013, and some of 2014 as well, and I am glad for that. A longer term plan is forming, and while events may disrupt that plan, I now have a solid direction to move in. It's when I have direction that I am my most effective and optimistic.
I am very interested to see where I end up a year from now. I feel the changes in my life are accelerating, and each day I'm closer to a new life I never before dared imagine was possible. I hope you'll stick around to share in my journey.
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